Chapman Worth a Hard Look From Yankees This Offseason

Most of the baseball world has become familiar with the name of the newest Cuban defector, Aroldis Chapman. The 21-year-old left-hander has a fastball that surpasses 100 MPH on occasion, which has led some people to call him the left-handed Stephen Strasburg.

Baseball Prospectus thinks that Chapman likely doesn't have the goods to be a top-line starter in the Major Leagues, however, because of some control problems. In their evaluation of similar starters from the minor leagues, the one favorable comparison that emerges is Oliver Perez. There are several successful relievers on their list, including Scott Linebrink, Brian Fuentes and Mike Gonzalez. But in this one case, I don't buy their evaluation.

Simply put, not that many lefties have raw stuff like Chapman has. While this is certainly no guarantee of immediate Major League success, it stacks the deck in his favor if his control improves at all. Secondly, the Prospectus has ranked the talent level in Cuba as equivalent to that of Low-A ball, which may be true, but I'm not sold. Cuba has performed exceptionally well in the World Baseball Classic, against premier Major League talent. Granted, those players are the All-Stars, but it leaves me wondering whether the level there may not be slightly higher. And then there is the added factor of pressure in the Cuban league. During my visit to Cuba early this decade, it was abundantly clear that the island is completely baseball-crazy and pays extraordinarily close attention to its players. Chapman, therefore, has pitched in much higher profile games than your average A-baller, and has had success.

International scouts are also very confident that Chapman is in fact 21. This is a major issue with Latin American prospects. And if he is in fact 21, he has pitched successfully at A-ball before he would have even graduated college. Do I think that Chapman can translate his experience immediately into the Major Leagues? Probably not. But plugging him in at AA to start next season isn't a bad idea.

The Yankees are right in the middle of establishing a rotation of the future. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes both appear to be a part of their long-term solution. A.J. Burnett and C.C. Sabathia will both be around for a while yet. Chapman could spend two years developing in their system with no problems. If the Yankees keep Chien-Ming Wang, they can really explore whether he can regain that form while Chapman develops in the minors. And if he proves he cannot pitch like he used to, Chapman would give them a high-upside arm to eventually slot in in the five hole.

And for argument's sake, let's say that Prospectus is right, and Chapman ultimately is more effective as a reliever. A left-hander out of the 'pen throwing over 100 MPH is a really dangerous weapon. Even though Mariano Rivera could probably pitch relatively effectively in the Majors until his mid-fifties with the shape he is in and his pitching know-how, my gut tells me he will not linger. After he leaves, the Yankees are going to need a closer, and the fireballing lefty might provide an intriguing option.

So, let me pass along a word of advice to Brian Cashman: sign Aroldis Chapman. Talents like him simply don't come around that often, and when they do, they are usually subject to the draft. Top teams like the Yankees don't get the first bite at domestic players with skills like Chapman's, and infusing a talent like that into your organization is always a good idea, even if they end up trade bait down the line.

Then there is the final motivating factor. The Red Sox seem interested in the kid as well. And the Yankees lefty-heavy lineup is already going to have to cope with a maturing David Price in their division. If Chapman lives up to his ability, he could become a dangerous Yankee-killer lefty that beats them three or four times every year.

Midpoint grades

Well, the All-Star game has come and gone. Derek Jeter has scored two more runs in the Midsummer Classic, and Mariano Rivera has picked up his record fourth save in eight scoreless All-Star innings. But with the schedule ready to resume tomorrow, I'm going to look at the Yankees production thus far and rank their performance.

TEAM: B+
This is a little harsh considering the fact that they are 2.5 games up in the Wild Card race, 3 games back of the Red Sox and have the third best record in baseball overall. But fans have to be concerned about the streaky tendency that this team has shown so far this year. The inability of this team to beat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Boston Red Sox also has to cause fans to chew off some cuticles. And with the massive free agent additions the Yankees made this offseason, the Wild Card simply isn't enough (but I'll take it) for an A. Let's not forget a B+ is a very good grade.

ROTATION: B Overall
A.J. Burnett: A (8-4, 3.77 ERA, 101 Ks in 107.1 IP, 1.38 WHIP)
My concerns about A.J. Burnett coming into this season were centered around his 4.07 ERA last season. It didn't seem right to me that a guy with an ERA that high could be expected to win 16-18 games regularly. Despite some rough streaks, Burnett has been downright dominant over the last month or so, and has lowered his ERA this season to an impressive 3.77 in the Bandbox in the Bronx. Outperforming your contract year in a tougher ballpark always earns you a nod in my book.

CC Sabathia: A- (8-6, 3.86 ERA, 95 Ks in 128.1 IP, 1.15 WHIP)
I was tempted to drop Sabathia to a B+ even though he has been the obvious ace of the staff so far this year strictly because his ERA is higher than Burnett's at 3.86. Also, if you told me Sabathia would be two games over .500 but the Yankees would be 14 over at the break I would have called you crazy. Sabathia's saving grace is his stellar WHIP. It is pretty clear he has been pitching better than his results so far, so hold out hope that he will dominate the way he usually does down the stretch run.

Andy Pettitte: B- (8-5, 4.85 ERA, 70 Ks in 107.2 IP, 1.53 WHIP)
Ouch! That WHIP is ugly! And the ERA is, too! But he has pitched 0.1 more innings than Burnett, lost one less game than Sabathia and won as many as both of them. You can't be mad at the record, but the peripherals tell me that his second half will not be as positive. And when Pettitte stinks these days, he really stinks.

Joba Chamberlain: D+ (4-2, 4.25 ERA, 78 Ks in 89 IP, 1.56 WHIP)
Chamberlain has lost steam on his fastball with the move to the rotation, taking him from unhittable to just slightly better than average. His location is horrible, and he struggles to make it out of the fifth inning of most of his starts. He walks everyone he doesn't strike out. Worse yet, he has such a big ego that he spends 2/3 of his time on the mound shaking off Jorge Posada's pitch selection. This kid has some serious maturing to do before he can handle starting in the major leagues at the level he is capable of.

Chien-Ming Wang: F (Wish I could go lower) (1-6, 9.64 ERA, 29 Ks in 42 IP, 2.02 WHIP)
What is there to say about Wang's season that hasn't already been said about the Titanic. A repeat 19-game winner has turned into baseball's worst pitcher. He started giving up fly balls to soar over the shorter fences in New Yankee Stadium. He can't locate, he looks alternately scared and lost, his sinker has left him and the Yankees feel he is more valuable on the Disabled List than on the mound. I guess Wang is a lot like most products made in Taiwan: he looks pretty good for a couple of years and then falls apart completely.

BULLPEN: C+ Overall
Alfredo Aceves: A+ (100 percent) (5-1, 2.49 ERA, 36 Ks in 43.1 IP, 0.97 WHIP)
This guy is a pitcher. Plain and simple. He can pitch late in ballgames. He can serve as mop-up. He's lights out as a spot starter. Think Ramiro Mendoza, but somehow better with less stuff. The Yankees should hold onto him for a long time.

Mariano Rivera: A+ (1-2, 2.43 ERA, 23 out of 24 saves, 43 Ks in 37 IP, 0.89 WHIP)
After some early season struggles that had the league saying "Mariano's losing it" for the 50th time, Rivera is back. You get the feeling he could be dominant with his cutter at 57 years old. It is effortless for him. 500 saves only begins to tell his greatness. And he is way better than Trevor Hoffman.

Phil Coke: A (3.99 ERA, 31 Ks in 38.1 IP, 9 Holds, 3 BSV, 1.04 WHIP)
Coke blew up in his last appearance before the break, or that ERA would have been about a run lower. Still, he has been the steady presence in a bullpen in flux all season. The Yankees have found themselves a formidable lefty in the absence of Damaso Marte.

Phil Hughes: A- (3-2, 3.91 ERA, 50 Ks in 53 IP, 1.21 WHIP)
Hughes has had the opposite of Chamberlain's season: he moved to the bullpen and his velocity went from average to plus. His early season struggles in the rotation hide his midseason dominance in the ERA department. Since moving to the setup role, Hughes has been nothing short of electric. I wonder if he can sustain the velocity in the rotation. It might be time to switch him and Joba.

Brian Bruney: C- (3-0, 4.86 ERA, 18 Ks in 16.2 IP, 7 Holds, 1.32 WHIP)
Bruney continues to have injury and control problems and the Yankees continue to see him as a setup man. Blows my mind.

David Robertson: D+ (1-0, 3.57 ERA, 34 Ks in 22.2 IP, 16 BB, 1.41 WHIP)
Robertson strikes out a lot of batters, and that has impressed people. His stuff is undeniably nasty, but he cannot hit the broad side of a barn with it. His numbers will swell as the league gets used to him and as they realize they will get on base if they do not swing. It has already started to happen. Get this kid to an optometrist. He reminds me of Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn from Major League.

Brett Tomko: F (1-2, 5.23 ERA, 11 Ks in 20.2 IP, 1.26 WHIP)
Don't let the good WHIP and only mildly bad ERA fool you. Whenever he is facing a decent team, or the Yankees put him in a close game, he blows up like the Fourth of July. Only should be pitched down ten or more runs.

CATCHER: B+ Overall
Jorge Posada: A- (.285 BA, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 29 R, .369 OBP, .877 OPS)
Posada has compiled nice power and production totals in only 193 AB. The Yankees had to wonder what they would get from him after his injury last year, and what they have gotten is a solid Posada season. His arm isn't what it used to be, and he has had some trouble gelling with some of the new faces in the rotation, but he is still one of the best in the business.

Francisco Cervelli: B (.269 BA, 1 (important) HR, 9 RBI, .284 OBP, .630 OPS)
In Jose Molina and Jorge Posada's absence, Cervelli stepped up big time. For a catcher with no real hitting skills, the guy seemed to get a lot of clutch hits. And his defense, pitch calling and arm are all above league average. His speed is also impressive for his position. His is the feel-good story of the year for the Yankees, and he managed to hold his weight at a time the Yankees were desperate for someone to step up. Too bad Molina's back, this kid's energy is fantastic.

INFIELD: A- Overall
Derek Jeter: A+ (.321 BA, 10 HR, 37 RBI, 56 R, 110 H, 17/20 SB, .396 OBP, .857 OPS)
Derek Jeter found a time machine, and it brought him all the way to starting at shortstop in the All-Star game. In a season where the outfield has been less productive, A-Rod stunk for a portion of the year, and the pitching has had its ups and downs, the captain has had to pick up a lot of the slack. He is in the top-10 in the league in batting average. He is stealing bases and hitting home runs like it was 1999, and he has been more patient in the leadoff spot. Add to that the fact that he is playing some of the best shortstop of his career, and the writers should seriously consider him for MVP if the Yankees overtake the Red Sox this season. What more do you want from a guy?

Mark Teixeira: A (.275 BA, 21 HR, 63 RBI, 56 R, 23 2B, .378 OBP, .913 OPS)
Teixeira has had a great all-around offensive season. He has emerged as the best hitter on A-Rod's team so far this year. His defense at first base has won the Yankees several games this season. He also definitely deserved to start at first in the All-Star game. This is looking like one of the best signings the Yankees have ever made, from an all-around perspective. He would have had an A+ with a slightly better batting average and a little less streakiness.

Alex Rodriguez: B (.256 BA, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 35 R, .411 OBP, .959 OPS)
Rodriguez's production this year is absurd considering he has only had 199 at-bats. He would be on pace for 51-55 home runs if he had not missed time. But what is even crazier about his numbers is that he amassed them while clearly struggling with his timing after returning from injury. He was searing hot entering the break. Expect a monster second half if his hip doesn't collapse under the pressure of proving he can hit without steroids or a mirror to kiss.

Robinson Cano: C+ (.308 BA, 13 HR, 46 RBI, 61 R, .341 OBP, .831 OPS)
I hate it when a good batting average masks a player's bad hitting. Cano only had 17 walks in the first half. He also struck out only 27 times. He gets a lot of hits, but swings at terrible pitches almost every at bat. His strikeout total is less a result of skill than a sheer inability to let a pitch he can reach go by. He could be hitting .340 or .350 if he just learned the strike zone.

OUTFIELD: C+ Overall
Johnny Damon: A- (.276 BA, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 62 R, 19 2B, 3 3B, 8/8 SB, .362 OBP, .872 OPS)
Damon loves that rightfield fence in the New House. His production has been out of this world this year, but his batting average has suffered a little bit. The Yankees needed him to play this way, though, in Alex Rodriguez's absence. I'm rooting for him to hit 30 home runs this year, and in the new park, it's a real possibility.

Nick Swisher: B (.237 BA, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 43 R, 18 2B, .360 OBP, .824 OPS)
As my blog shows, before the year started I was a big proponent of Xavier Nady's. Forget him. The way Swisher works the count has made Bobby Abreu's departure irrelevant. He is a tough out almost every single time, and he has more than a little pop left in his bat even though he is undeniably streaky. Unfortunately, his rightfield defense also reminds me of Abreu, minus the arm. His average is unsightly, but that .360 OBP is stellar for a guy in his position. He gets everything out of his skill set.

Melky Cabrera: B- (.285 BA, 8 HR, 34 RBI, .347 OBP, .786 OPS)
Melky once again looks like a nice little player in this league. His average and on-base percentage have rebounded, and his range and arm in the outfield are nothing to be sneezed at. He is by no means a star, but he's a tough little player and he's hard not to root for. Especially when he seems to be a big piece in every other late inning rally like he did in the first half.

Brett Gardner: C+ (.282 BA, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 36 R, 5 3B, 18/22 SB, .352 OBP, .757 OPS)
Gardner has definitely hit the ball better this year than last year, and his stolen base numbers are very solid considering he only has 188 at-bats. But then there's the issue of on-base percentage. He needs to get it up over .400 if he is going to use his one major league tool to the fullest of its potential. His range in the outfield is very good. His arm is not. He will not stop Austin Jackson from eventually taking this position.

Hideki Matsui: C (.265 BA, 14 HR, 40 RBI, 29 R, .367 OBP, .884 OPS)
This is the one time (besides Cervelli, who succeeded in my book for his guts) in this grading system that OPS has not been a fantastic gauge of the grade a player ends up with. Matsui's power and production have been much better than I anticipated this year. But I attribute all of it to his left-handed pull swing and the short porch. He cannot run anymore. He has to DH because his body is shot. The Yankees would be crazy to bring him back next year. He simply is not the same ballplayer. Someone will overpay him next year, and unless its a small ballpark, they will pay for that in every way except for international merchandising revenue.

Cringing at Sabathia's attempted barehand plays

The Yankees need to talk to C.C. Sabathia about barehanding balls hit back at the mound. He was extraordinarily good again tonight in Cleveland, allowing three runs in seven innings while striking out eight. But twice during the game, he reached for batted balls hit at him with his pitching hand. The last thing the newly-gelled Yankees need is a silly injury to their ace.

Sabathia is pitching like himself now, though. Over his last five starts Sabathia is 4-0, bringing his record to 5-3. Over that stretch, he has gone 39 innings, allowing nine runs (2.08 ERA) while striking out 32. He has allowed 26 hits and nine walks in those starts for a WHIP of 0.90. His ERA for the season now stands at 3.46, and he has 56 strikeouts in 78 innings pitched. He has started to appear in the top-10 of many of the American League pitching categories.

That is why it is so alarming to see C.C. trying to grab the ball with those valuable fingers. The first time he went for the ball, he was 4.1 innings into no-hitting his old team, so I understand the impulse to preserve the game. But the second time, it appeared that he was simply frustrated because he had run into a little trouble. Joe Girardi needs to tell him that it is best for the team if Sabathia uses his glove or lets his infielders go for the ball.

Besides that snipe, the Yanks are looking pretty solid at 29-20. They sit 1.5 games up on the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays atop the AL East leader board. They are two games up in the loss column on Boston, and three games up on Toronto.

GAME NOTES 5/31...Jorge Posada homered in the Yankees 10-5 victory over Cleveland, and looked comfortable at the plate for the second straight day since he came off the disabled list...Nick Swisher also hit a long home run to center field, putting his season total at 10...Jose Veras gave up two runs in an inning of relief, pushing his season ERA to 6.97. He threw 14 strikes out of his 23 pitches and gave up a home run to Shin-Soo Choo. Veras continues not to look like the confident late inning reliever he was last year. The Yankees have to hope that Alfredo Aceves is truly an answer for them at setup man...Michael Kay said that the Yankees were unlikely to keep three catchers when Jose Molina returns to the club shortly. That spells an end to Francisco Cervelli's productive stint with the club. The kid definitely earned a closer look in the coming seasons.

Yankees Lose on Opening Day...and I See Reasons to Smile

Hey folks...
I know it's obnoxious that my posts are currently appearing on a different site, but I wrote a pretty good analysis of the Yankees' Opening Day loss to the Orioles over at Chimpanzee Rodeo, so I'm going to link over. Oh, and don't be fooled. There aren't two writers on this blog. I just added my GMail account because blogger is lunching out about non-Google accounts...

Check out the piece here

Pettitte Back for One More Year

Andy Pettitte and the Yankees have agreed on an incentive-laden one-year contract that will make him their fifth starter next year.

The contract will pay him $5.5 million in base salary, but offers an additional $6.5 million in bonuses based on innings pitched and days spent on the active roster. If he doesn't spend time on the disabled list and pitches 210+ innings this year, he will earn the full $12 million.

Earlier this offseason, Pettitte rejected a $10 million proposal from the Yankees, but he clearly wanted to pitch in the New Yankee Stadium. As a Yankee from 1995-2003 and from 2007 up until the present, Pettitte, along with Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera, is one of the last bridges to the '90s Yankees dynasty. While the current deal guarantees less money, the incentives are relatively easy to attain.

The 2009 Yankees rotation should look something like this: C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain and Pettitte. Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Aceves, Sergio Mitre and the other youngsters will have to wait in the wings unless someone gets injured or Joba Chamberlain moves back to the bullpen (which, for the record, I am dead set against).

While I am against this signing on the grounds that Pettitte is old, and was very ineffective in the second half last season, I will never really get tired of watching him. David Cone and him were my two favorite pitchers growing up, so I hope he pulls a Mike Mussina and reinvents himself this season and makes idiots like me feel bad for doubting him. In reality, as a fifth starter, Pettitte should be just fine. It's just a shame to let Phil Hughes waste away in the minors when he clearly needs big league experience at this point to step forward.

Pettitte admitted to using HGH after being mentioned in the Mitchell Report last spring. With the distraction of that likely to be considerably smaller this season, I would not be surprised to see him bounce back somewhere between his 2007 numbers of 15-9 and a 4.05 and 2008 stats of 14-14 with a 4.54.