Chapman Worth a Hard Look From Yankees This Offseason

Most of the baseball world has become familiar with the name of the newest Cuban defector, Aroldis Chapman. The 21-year-old left-hander has a fastball that surpasses 100 MPH on occasion, which has led some people to call him the left-handed Stephen Strasburg.

Baseball Prospectus thinks that Chapman likely doesn't have the goods to be a top-line starter in the Major Leagues, however, because of some control problems. In their evaluation of similar starters from the minor leagues, the one favorable comparison that emerges is Oliver Perez. There are several successful relievers on their list, including Scott Linebrink, Brian Fuentes and Mike Gonzalez. But in this one case, I don't buy their evaluation.

Simply put, not that many lefties have raw stuff like Chapman has. While this is certainly no guarantee of immediate Major League success, it stacks the deck in his favor if his control improves at all. Secondly, the Prospectus has ranked the talent level in Cuba as equivalent to that of Low-A ball, which may be true, but I'm not sold. Cuba has performed exceptionally well in the World Baseball Classic, against premier Major League talent. Granted, those players are the All-Stars, but it leaves me wondering whether the level there may not be slightly higher. And then there is the added factor of pressure in the Cuban league. During my visit to Cuba early this decade, it was abundantly clear that the island is completely baseball-crazy and pays extraordinarily close attention to its players. Chapman, therefore, has pitched in much higher profile games than your average A-baller, and has had success.

International scouts are also very confident that Chapman is in fact 21. This is a major issue with Latin American prospects. And if he is in fact 21, he has pitched successfully at A-ball before he would have even graduated college. Do I think that Chapman can translate his experience immediately into the Major Leagues? Probably not. But plugging him in at AA to start next season isn't a bad idea.

The Yankees are right in the middle of establishing a rotation of the future. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes both appear to be a part of their long-term solution. A.J. Burnett and C.C. Sabathia will both be around for a while yet. Chapman could spend two years developing in their system with no problems. If the Yankees keep Chien-Ming Wang, they can really explore whether he can regain that form while Chapman develops in the minors. And if he proves he cannot pitch like he used to, Chapman would give them a high-upside arm to eventually slot in in the five hole.

And for argument's sake, let's say that Prospectus is right, and Chapman ultimately is more effective as a reliever. A left-hander out of the 'pen throwing over 100 MPH is a really dangerous weapon. Even though Mariano Rivera could probably pitch relatively effectively in the Majors until his mid-fifties with the shape he is in and his pitching know-how, my gut tells me he will not linger. After he leaves, the Yankees are going to need a closer, and the fireballing lefty might provide an intriguing option.

So, let me pass along a word of advice to Brian Cashman: sign Aroldis Chapman. Talents like him simply don't come around that often, and when they do, they are usually subject to the draft. Top teams like the Yankees don't get the first bite at domestic players with skills like Chapman's, and infusing a talent like that into your organization is always a good idea, even if they end up trade bait down the line.

Then there is the final motivating factor. The Red Sox seem interested in the kid as well. And the Yankees lefty-heavy lineup is already going to have to cope with a maturing David Price in their division. If Chapman lives up to his ability, he could become a dangerous Yankee-killer lefty that beats them three or four times every year.

Teixeira Taking Heat off A-Rod

Can anyone imagine where the Yankees would be right now without Mark Teixeira?

Alex Rodriguez is hitting just a shade over .230 with eight home runs in mid-June. Granted he is coming off of an injury that cost him roughly half of the season so far, but without Teixeira's obscene production (he just hit his 20th home run of the season off Livan Hernandez) it is hard to imagine Rodriguez struggling this quietly.

Given the steroids questions, the unflattering mirror-kissing imagery and the nasty Selena Roberts book, the New York media has been relatively forgiving of Rodriguez's sub-par play thus far.

A-Rod's production hasn't been terrible so far. The home runs and RBI's have been coming, but the perennial All-Star has yet to look comfortable at the plate. It is obvious that his pitch recognition isn't where it usually is at this point in the season. It is also clear that he is not yet comfortable enough at the plate to hit the ball to the opposite field. But short of the Yankees' inexplicable inability to beat the Boston Red Sox so far this year, the team has looked dominant without their marquee player.

It is scary to think what this offense will look like once Rodriguez really gets cranking, assuming he does because of his flat-out historical greatness. The Hall of Fame debate is to be held at a later date, but it is hard to argue the supremacy of the enigmatic #13. Hopefully Rodriguez can get his balance in the box before Teixeira slows down and exposes his struggles.

Around the AL East--Chimpanzee Style

I did a summary of today's studs and duds in the AL East for Chimpanzee Rodeo. Thought I'd share the link with you guys as is quickly becoming my custom.

Read it here.

Red Sox Bolster Outfield, Continue Signing Injured Players

The Boston Red Sox have continued their offseason spree of signing injured players to bolster their squad with the addition of former Dodgers closer Takashi Saito.

Saito, when healthy, has impressed in the weak NL West since his arrival in the United States. He will join fellow Japanese pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and bullpen mate Hideki Okajima. The Red Sox also added prospect Junichi Tazawa this offseason.

Saito, similar to Sox newcomers Rocco Baldelli, Brad Penny and John Smoltz, is an All-Star caliber talent who is coming off of injury problems.

Possibly because of the injury history of outfielders J.D. Drew and Baldelli, the Red Sox re-signed midseason acquisition Mark Kotsay.

Saito, when healthy, is a very solid bullpen arm who will help stabilize the Red Sox late-inning pitching along with Okajima and right-handed closer Jonathan Papelbon.

Out of the pool of four injured former stars, the Red Sox have to figure someone will get injured, but they are starting to have the kind of star depth that makes it almost irrelevant who plays. If Baldelli goes down, Kotsay steps in. If Penny and Smoltz get hurt, Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson are available for use. If Saito goes down, Manny Del Carmen or the newly acquired Ramon Ramirez comes in. This team is going to be tough, and they are gambling on very valuable chips, but have a lot of backup in case of trouble. I guess they learned from Ortiz's injury.

Red Sox Poised to Counter with 1-2 Combo

It was a busy day for the Boston Red Sox. Never a good sentence for the Yankees fans among us.

First it became apparent that Rocco Baldelli, the exceptionally talented mitochondrial-disordered former-Rays outfielder, will likely be joining Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew in a very talented Boston outfield.

And then it popped up that the great John Smoltz also is packing for Beantown. He will join Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Brad Penny and Tim Wakefield in a crowded veteran rotation.

Their outfield still has question marks, but the skill level is undeniable. J.D. Drew only had 368 at-bats, but for part of the year he looked like an MVP candidate until Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis went on cruise control and carried the team. As usual, he was injured, but still finished with a .280 average, 19 home runs and 64 RBI, or roughly on track for 30 home runs and just about 100 RBI had he had a healthy 600 AB year. Health is his persistent question mark. When on the field, he can be one of the better lefty mashers in the AL. Jason Bay is always a beast. He hit .281 with 31 homers and 101 knocked in between Boston and Pittsburgh. Expect those numbers to rise over a full season at Fenway. Ellsbury is a key to this team. He hit .280/9/47 last season, but stole 50 out of 61 bases and scored 98 runs in 550 AB. His OBP was an unimpressive .336 and slugging percentage a paltry .394. That leaves his OPS almost 50 points lower than Derek Jeter's last season during a down year, and at a much more important offensive position in center field, and over 100 points below Johnny Damon's. If it wasn't for the steals, it would be safe to say Ellsbury flopped last season. What is he going to produce next year? A chimpanzee with a bat could probably score 100 runs leading off for the Sox, so I'll bet he gets there, but as for production, who knows?

And what does Baldelli bring? Well, a ton of skill. He is either a humongous steal or a completely irrelevant signing. I love this move for Boston, and hate it for the Yankees, but both Drew and Baldelli are significant injury risks, and I'm not sure that the Sox have much any organizational depth to back them up. That's the only thing I can say to feel better about his playing for them. Well, and let's be honest, Bay and Baldelli are good, but at least Manny ain't comin' back.

And when it comes to the pitching, the group is again talented, but there are definitely still some signs of hope for the Yankees Faithful. Jon Lester is a stud. His control got better and his WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) dropped significantly last year and not surprisingly, his ERA dipped. I expect him to do about equally well next season, and don't see him as a huge injury risk because he held up alright last season and his body seemed to have filled out a good deal.

As for Beckett, you can't put too much stake in this kind of thing, but his career ERAs (starting in 2002 when he first started over 20 games) go in order as follows: 4.10, 3.04, 3.79, 3.38, 5.01, 3.27, 4.03. He seems to go good year/off year every two seasons, and he was off last season at 12-10 with a 4.03. His WHIP was still low at 1.19, and his strikeouts still high at 172 (in 174.1 innings), so I definitely don't see him as done. His ERA was freakishly high for his other numbers.

Matsuzaka is headed in the other direction. The rats started jumping off of his back at the end of the season. I can hear the talk radio/bleacher animals among you now: How are you going to say that a guy with a 2.90 ERA and a record of 18-3 is headed south? Well, it's simple really. As unlucky as Beckett was, Matsuzaka was lucky. In 2007, Matsuzaka gave up 191 hits in 204.2 innings. In 2008, he gave up 128 in 167.2. That's almost a hit less every four innings, or accountable for as much as .25 in WHIP, which is roughly the difference between Johan Santana and Tim Redding. Now, I do think he learned how to pitch more effectively to Major Leaguers in his second season, but his strikeout rate actually decreased. He had 201 in 204.2 innings in '07, 154 in 167.2 in '08. So the difference wasn't that he started to blow people away. They put the ball in play slightly more this year, but only got 3/4 of the hits. That is very improbable in baseball. And even with that, his WHIP was still on the high side at 1.32. Add in that extra .25 he seemed to be in line for and we would have someone slightly better than Daniel Cabrera. Also not helping his case is that Matsuzaka walked 94 people last year, or just about five per nine innings. That was up from just above 3.5 in '07, when he walked 80 men in forty more innings. You don't walk that many people, have that many balls put in play, and have a sub-3.00 ERA. That is absurdly lucky, but it doesn't tend to last. I wouldn't be shocked to see him around a 4.50 next season. He's an average (possibly below?) pitcher, with strikeout stuff but bad control on a great all-around team who had a Kevin Federline moment that lasted for a whole season.

Wakefield's a knuckleballer, so his arm is rubber, and it is almost irrelevant that he is turning 43 next August. We know he's good for a 4.00-4.50 ERA, but he can be beat when the wind isn't stirring and the ball has ceased to Fred Astaire on the batter. I have already expounded on Penny's health questions and I don't feel like I have anything more worth adding on the subject. I see what they were thinking a lot more on the Smoltz gamble.

In a sense, John Smoltz becomes the key to this rotation. He could be the second coming (of a slightly better, in my opinion) Curt Schilling, or he could blow his shoulder out and retire. If he's good and healthy, its gonna be a gutwrenching season.

They weren't going to let the Yanks play leapfrog over them. There was going to be a response. This is just an unusually high upside, high risk, annoyingly nebulous one. What these guys will contribute next year is as mystifying to me as the appeal of the new hanging socks hat.

But I know I will hate them whether they are good or bad. Which is comforting.

Penny For My Thoughts

The Boston Red Sox filled their sixth starter role by signing Brad Penny this week. They use six starters to help out their pitchers' arms... by the by, do you think Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes would mind an extra rest day and 30-40 fewer innings?

Now, Penny is a little hard to gauge. He certainly has great stuff, but then again, so did Wade Miller and Matt Clement. Success in the National League didn't mean a whole lot in the AL East, and as Miller showed, injuries can portend others and limit effectiveness...

And Penny did not look good last season after May 7.

I for one, would be more nervous if they had thrown the Teixeira cash at a Derek Lowe or even an Oliver Perez.

On the other hand, I kicked some major butt with Josh Bard in MLB 2K7, and consider him a worthy replacement for Kevin Cash, so the Sox fans should feel better there.